The Austin housing market enters November with decelerating momentum as inventory levels remain elevated and demand continues to trail seasonal expectations.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for November 3, 2025.
Across the Austin-Area MLS, active residential listings stand at 16,041 — up 15.5% year over year and just below the June peak of 18,146. While total inventory is lower than midsummer, it remains substantially above 2024 levels, signaling that homes are still lingering on the market longer than usual. Nearly 59% of all listings have experienced at least one price reduction, a clear indicator that sellers are adjusting expectations in response to reduced buyer urgency and slower absorption.
From January through October, the region has recorded 45,232 new listings, a 5.9% increase compared to last year and 24.3% above the 25-year average. This steady inflow of supply continues to outpace demand. Pending listings are down 4.1% year over year at 3,801, and cumulative pending transactions for the year sit at 37,860 — off 1.4% from 2024. The imbalance between listing activity and buyer follow-through is underscored by an Activity Index of just 19.2%, a 13.8% decline from last year and the lowest autumn reading since 2014. Within the resale segment, the index has fallen to 16.7%, placing most of the Austin metro in the “contraction” or “danger zone” phase, where demand lags significantly behind supply.
Shifts in Market Dynamics
The New Listing-to-Pending ratio, currently at 0.70, confirms that for every 10 homes coming to market, only about 7 are going under contract. Historically, a balanced market averages closer to 0.82. This persistent imbalance has contributed to an increase in Months of Inventory, now at 5.72 compared to 4.95 a year ago — a 15.6% rise. Translating that to real-world terms, it would take nearly six months to sell through the current supply at the present pace of sales, signaling a firm shift toward buyer-favorable conditions.
Team Price’s market phase classification shows only 5 cities and 18 ZIP codes in “Seller Acceleration” or “Seller Edge” territory, while 14 cities and 27 ZIPs have slipped into the “Contraction” or “Danger Zone.” Another 12 cities and 25 ZIPs sit in the “Neutral Zone,” a balanced segment where pricing remains stable but momentum is fading. The areas hardest hit by the deceleration include Liberty Hill, Elgin, Bastrop, and portions of North Austin, each showing growing inventory combined with muted contract activity.
Pricing Trends and Buyer Leverage
Price trends continue to reflect a market in correction. The average sold price in October was $596,834 — down 12.5% from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price sits at $440,000, representing a 20% decline, or $110,000 drop, from that same peak period. Compared to three years ago, today’s median is 6.4% lower, marking one of the few post-pandemic markets nationally to post a full reversal below 2020–2022 levels.
At current appreciation rates, Austin’s 25-year compound annual return of 4.886% suggests it would take roughly 59 months — until August 2030 — for median prices to regain the $550,000 peak, assuming steady 4.9% annual appreciation without further declines. In short, even modest further softening could extend that recovery timeline well into the next economic cycle.
The price drop distribution shows a widening divergence between high-end and entry-level markets. Homes in the top 25th percentile have appreciated 6.05% year over year, while the bottom quartile has declined 1.48%. This polarization reveals a two-speed market: affluent buyers remain active, particularly in established central ZIPs, while affordability-strained segments have cooled sharply due to high mortgage rates and stagnant income growth.
Absorption and Market Flow
The absorption rate — the ratio of sold homes to active listings — is now 14.13%, less than half its long-term average of 31.69%. In practical terms, only about one in seven active homes sells in a given month. This level of absorption is consistent with prior downturn phases, where demand remains tepid despite price adjustments. The Market Flow Score (MFS), an index blending absorption, turnover, and efficiency measures, is 3.53 compared to a historical norm of 6.58. Lower MFS readings imply that listings are sitting longer, price adjustments are more frequent, and overall transaction velocity has slowed dramatically.
For buyers, this environment offers increasing leverage. The Months of Inventory index indicates that several Austin suburbs — including Marble Falls, Lago Vista, Burnet, and Smithville — have crossed into “Buyer Control” conditions, where excessive supply places downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, a few select markets like Manchaca and Cedar Park still exhibit faster turnover, primarily due to limited new supply and more stable price points.
Transaction Volume and Market Throughput
October closed with 2,154 residential sales across the Austin area. Year-to-date, 25,408 homes have sold — 4.1% fewer than in 2024, but still 6.4% above the long-term average. When adjusted for population, cumulative sales per 100,000 residents have declined 6.4% year over year and remain 21.6% below the 25-year mean. The number of homes sold per 1,000 licensed Realtors stands at 1,367 — essentially flat year over year but 24.5% below historical norms, reflecting continued agent oversaturation relative to closed volume.
Forward Outlook: Stabilization Before Recovery
The Austin housing forecast for late 2025 points toward ongoing deceleration rather than collapse. With inventory expanding faster than absorption, seasonal declines in buyer activity will likely extend through year-end. However, the magnitude of price corrections seen since 2022 suggests that much of the structural adjustment is already complete. The market may now enter a prolonged equilibrium period, defined by mild price variability and slow but steady turnover.
Looking forward, affordability will continue to dictate momentum. Mortgage rate stabilization near mid-7% levels may help sustain buyer confidence, but meaningful acceleration will depend on income growth and renewed in-migration — both of which have slowed compared to 2015–2020 norms. Builders are still holding a 25.6% share of active inventory, indicating that new construction remains a key pressure valve for affordability. Resale listings, by contrast, face longer absorption times and greater price elasticity.
For sellers, realistic pricing and time-on-market expectations are essential. Properties priced within 2–3% of fair market value are still selling efficiently, while overpricing by 5% or more often results in multiple reductions and extended days on market. For buyers, today’s data signals opportunity: a wider selection, motivated sellers, and potential concessions that were unimaginable during the 2021–2022 frenzy.
The overarching message is one of transition — from expansion to normalization. Austin’s housing market has shed the speculative heat of its pandemic-era highs and is now recalibrating toward fundamentals. As data continues to stabilize, the next few quarters will likely define whether the market finds a sustainable floor or drifts toward an overshoot before the next recovery cycle begins.
